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Thursday forecast; record heat followed by severe storms!
Thursday forecast; record heat followed by severe storms!
There’s a lot on the weather menu for Thursday in Chicagoland.
In the morning, we have some dense fog, particularly in northern locations near the lake.
Then, as conditions clear and the sun comes out, temperatures will soar into the low 90s in some locations during the afternoon, possibly breaking the record high of 91 set on this date in 1962.
Finally, with the warm air fueling the environment for storms, there’s a potential for severe weather in the area from about 4 to 10 p.m., with all risks — golf ball-size or bigger hail, 75-mph-plus winds, and tornadoes — in play for Chicagoland.
Here’s a timeline and more detail on what to expect Thursday and into the weekend:
The fog
Most areas in Chicagoland are clearing for the morning commute, but a Dense Fog Advisory does remain in effect for northern Cook County until 7 a.m. and for Lake County in Illinois and Kenosha County in southeastern Wisconsin until 10 a.m.
Further south, in the City of Chicago, there will be some foggy areas along the lakefront before things begin to clear out.
The heat
As fog and morning clouds clear and the sun comes out, temps will soar to summer-like levels.
Thursday will feel a lot more like July rather than mid-May, with afternoon highs challenging a more than 60-year-old temperature record at O’Hare International Airport.
Again, however, it’ll remain cooler at the lakefront, especially in northern areas. So while it’ll be very hot in some locations, Thursday will see a wide temp range around Chicagoland.
The storms
The abnormal heat for this time of year and high dew points will create an ideal environment for storms later Thursday.
The timeline for severe weather in Chicagoland is from about 4 to 10 p.m., moving west to east. Almost all of Chicagoland is now under a Level 3 of 5 risk for severe weather, according to the Storm Prediction Center.
For some of the area, that’s an upgrade from the Level 2 risk assessment of Wednesday.
Now, it should be noted that there is a small chance we don’t get any storms at all in our area on Thursday. But IF they develop, they’re likely to become severe quickly, with all the ingredients available for intense severe storms containing all severe weather hazards.
From 4 to 7 p.m., forecast models show storms moving west to east in clusters:
Then, from 8 to 10 p.m., forecast models show storms becoming more linear as they exit the area, moving out of Northwest Indiana by about 9:30 or 10 p.m.
The one element that might retard storm development is an atmospheric “cap” that’s likely to be in place for a time. A “cap” is a layer of warm air aloft, usually between 10,000 and 20,000 feet in the atmosphere.
Temperatures briefly turn warmer and prevent the updrafts from punching upwards and generating storm development.
The weekend
After Thursday’s fog, heat and storms, Friday is projected to be another warm day, with inland highs in the mid- to upper 80s.
It’ll also be very breezy, with wind gusts up to 45 miles per hour and dry conditions creating an fire danger threat.
After Friday, temps will cool significantly for the weekend and into next week, even well below seasonal averages.
Thursday sunburn forecast
8-day temperature snapshot
Comfortable but cool highs, mainly in the 60s, will blanket the Midwest, Great Lakes and Northeast next week. The heat will be suppressed to the Southwest, Texas and into the Southeast due to a ridge of high pressure.
Upper air pattern
Heat can’t build across the rest of the Lower 48, aside from Texas and Florida, due to continued troughs digging out of Canada repeatedly over an eastern Pacific ridge. The end result is cooler temperatures overall and unsettled weather at times.
8-14 day temperature outlook
There’s a cool pattern for the Midwest and Northeast as we head into the final 10 days of May.
May’s warming trend
Climate and Environment news: WGN Weather Center blog
